Lutter contre le changement climatique créerait 18 millions d’emplois

Crédit photo de couverture: La création de 2,5 millions de postes pour le renouvelable compenserait largement la destruction de 400 000 emplois dans le fossile. STEPHANE MAHE / REUTERS

 


La réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre pourrait générer quatre fois plus d’emplois dans le monde qu’elle n’en détruirait.

Créer 18 millions d’emplois dans le monde, voilà ce que permettrait la lutte pour réduire les émissions de CO2 – afin de contenir le réchauffement climatique en dessous des 2 °C, tel que le préconise l’accord de Paris conclu le 12 décembre 2015.

Dans le rapport « Emploi et questions sociales dans le monde 2018 : une économie verte et créatrice d’emploi », rendu public lundi 14 mai au soir, l’Organisation internationale du travail (OIT) a réalisé une estimation des pertes et des créations d’emplois induites par cette évolution de l’économie, qu’elle juge inéluctable. Elle considère que celle-ci pourrait se solder par 24 millions de nouveaux postes tandis que 6 millions disparaîtraient; le solde induit par la généralisation de la transition verte serait donc de 18 millions d’ici à 2030.

L’unique agence tripartite des Nations unies – regroupant les représentants des gouvernements, des employeurs et des salariés de 187 Etats membres – avait déjà, dans le passé, travaillé sur la question des emplois verts et du travail décent. En 2013, lors de la Conférence internationale du travail, qui se tient chaque mois de juillet à Genève, elle avait produit un rapport indiquant « des gains nets en matière d’emplois supplémentaires, entre 2010 et 2030, de 0,5 % à 2 % ».

Catherine Saget, économiste à l’OIT et principale auteure du rapport publié lundi, prévient qu’« il ne s’agit pas ici de comptabiliser les emplois verts à venir, mais d’étudier les gains et pertes dans tous les secteurs touchés par la mutation de l’économie ». Ainsi l’OIT estime que « l’action visant à limiter le réchauffement climatique à 2 °C va se traduire par suffisamment de créations d’emplois pour compenser largement les six millions de suppressions d’emploi faites ailleurs ».

Bénéfice en Amérique, Asie et Europe, perte en Afrique

Le bénéfice net se concentre dans les Amériques, en Asie et dans la zone Pacifique, ainsi qu’en Europe, s’élevant respectivement à trois millions, à quatorze millions et à douze millions d’emplois. A contrario, le Moyen-Orient et l’Afrique en perdraient respectivement environ 300 000 et 350 000 (soit – 0,48 % et – 0,04 % du total dans chacune des deux régions du monde), « en raison de leur dépendance à l’égard, respectivement, des énergies fossiles et des mines », précise l’OIT.

Sur les 163 secteurs économiques étudiés, seuls quatorze vont subir des suppressions supérieures à dix mille postes à l’échelle mondiale. L’extraction pétrolière et le raffinage afficheraient des pertes supérieures à un million d’emplois. Dans le secteur de l’électricité, la création de 2,5 millions de postes pour les énergies renouvelables compenserait largement la destruction de 400 000 emplois dans la production basée sur les combustibles fossiles.

L’économie circulaire, avec les activités de recyclage, de tri, la réparation, la location et la réutilisation d’objets générerait six millions d’emplois. Dans ces domaines, l’OIT insiste aussi sur la nécessité d’assurer la qualité du travail, bien souvent précaire, dangereux et dénué de protection sociale dans des secteurs informels.

Renforcer les formations et les protections sociales

Plus difficile à quantifier, la montée en puissance de l’agriculture bio et de l’agriculture de conservation (qui permet de maintenir et d’augmenter le potentiel agronomique des sols en limitant les intrants, par exemple, et en organisant les rotations culturales) devrait aussi permettre d’embaucher davantage de monde. En Europe, l’emploi agricole a augmenté de 1,1 % avec les conversions en bio. « Le passage à des systèmes agricoles plus durables créerait des emplois dans des fermes bio de taille moyenne ou grande et permettrait aux petits exploitants de diversifier leurs sources de revenu, surtout si les fermiers disposent des compétences adéquates », écrivent les auteurs du rapport.


Pour limiter les impacts négatifs et les réductions de personnel à court terme induits par les mesures climatiques, il faut impérativement, insiste l’OIT, développer des « politiques appropriées », s’agissant notamment des revenus des travailleurs, d’une assurance sociale renforcée et des formations nécessaires pour accompagner la mutation de l’économie.

De nombreux exemples d’aides possibles sont présentés dans ce rapport, comme la mise en place, au Kenya, d’un système qui organise des transferts de cash, de l’ordre de 50 dollars (42 euros) tous les deux mois, versés à 25 % des familles en cas de sécheresse. Ou le programme Bolsa verde, créé au Brésil en 2011, qui encourage la préservation de l’environnement, en augmentant le niveau de revenu de familles en situation d’extrême pauvreté. Celles-ci doivent réaliser des activités comme l’utilisation durable des ressources naturelles ou l’entretien de l’extension forestière.

Solde positif dans la construction et les services


« Les pays à faible revenu et certains pays à revenu intermédiaire ont encore besoin d’aide pour développer la collecte des données, pour adopter et financer des stratégies en faveur d’une juste transition vers une économie durable sur le plan environnemental et une société qui inclut chacune et chacun, dans toutes les couches de la société », souligne Catherine Saget.

 

Les pays aux économies développées ne sont pas oubliés. En France, l’organisation internationale estime qu’environ 2,1 millions de postes (représentant 8 % de l’emploi total) « dépendent directement de la gestion efficace et de la durabilité d’un environnement sain ». Dans le domaine de l’énergie, les pertes pourraient atteindre quelque 42 000 emplois, compensées par la création de 155 000 autres. Les secteurs qui connaîtraient un solde positif sont la construction (86 500), le secteur manufacturier (33 400) et les services (32 000).

Au niveau mondial, l’agence des Nations unies étudie aussi les impacts négatifs du changement climatique sur l’économie. Dans le domaine de l’agriculture, le réchauffement se traduit par des épuisements et des pertes économiques sèches. Les auteurs du rapport estiment que « le stress thermique va provoquer une perte mondiale de 2 % des heures travaillées d’ici à 2030 pour cause de maladie ». Un argument supplémentaire pour l’OIT qui pousse les Etats à développer des modèles économiques conformes à l’ambition climatique affichée en 2015 et aux normes qu’elle prône pour un travail décent.

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