Comment le Portugal se dirige vers le plein emploi… en faisant l’inverse de ce qu’exige Bruxelles


Salaire minimum en hausse, taxe sur les gros chiffres d’affaire, revalorisation des retraites… Lisbonne ose prendre le contre-pied du dogme économique de l’UE. Et au grand dam des promoteurs de l’austérité, cette politique porte ses fruits.
Y aurait-il, face au fameux modèle allemand, un contre-modèle portugais ? A en juger par les chiffres excellents dont Lisbonne peut s’enorgueillir, il semblerait que le dogme de l’austérité, vanté par l’Union Européenne (UE) comme l’unique option économique viable, se voie sérieusement remis en question.


Avec un taux de chômage en baisse constante depuis novembre 2015, le Portugal, qui était au bord du gouffre économique il y a quelques années encore, fait désormais plus que relever la tête : il peut même regarder de haut ses voisins, au premier rang desquels la France. Alors que le taux de chômage culminait à 17,5% début 2013, il n’est désormais plus que de 7,9% début 2018, c’est-à-dire en-dessous des 8,9% affichés par la France.


Les Portugais ont-ils, en bon élèves européens, consenti à un gel ou une baisse de leurs salaires pour retrouver le chemin de l’emploi ? Bien au contraire, le salaire minimum a été augmenté de 530€ à 557€ en 2017 et doit être porté à 600€ en 2019. Lisbonne aurait-elle alors suivi l’exemple français et allemand en soulageant la fiscalité des entreprises ? Là encore, pas du tout : le gouvernement portugais a par exemple créé une taxe pour toutes les entreprises au chiffre d’affaire supérieur à 35 millions d’euros.

En réalité, sur de nombreux points, la politique économique portugaise prend le contre-pied total de celle qui est recommandée par Bruxelles et appliquée par Berlin ou Paris depuis plusieurs années.
Le budget 2018 du Portugal prévoit ainsi une hausse des pensions de retraite, un programme de valorisation de la fonction publique ou encore, bien loin de la théorie du ruissellement, une diminution d’impôts pour les classes moyennes. Tandis que Bruxelles théorise et impose une doctrine de rigueur reposant notamment sur la baisse des salaires et la réduction drastique des dépenses sociales, le Portugal semble ainsi contredire toutes les leçons européennes en matière économique.

Pourquoi la réussite portugaise n’emballe pas Bruxelles

Le gouvernement de gauche d’Antonio Costa peut se targuer d’avoir mis en pratique et avec succès une politique économique ambitieuse. Pourquoi dès lors le modèle portugais est-il si peu vanté dans l’UE et si peu visible dans la presse ? Sans doute parce qu’il démontre que les politiques de relance, un concept devenu quasi tabou en Europe, peuvent bel et bien porter leurs fruits. Celles-ci reposent sur une idée simple : stimuler la consommation en améliorant les salaires et ainsi remplir les carnets de commande des entreprises, avec des effets positifs pour l’investissement et la productivité.

Alors que de nombreux gouvernements européens acquis au dogme libéral et austéritaire exigent de leurs citoyens des sacrifices dont les résultats promis peinent à venir, on comprend le peu d’enthousiasme que suscitent les choix politiques du gouvernement d’Antonio Costa auprès de l’opposition de droite, partisane de la politique de rigueur européenne.


Le Premier ministre portugais n’hésite d’ailleurs pas à attaquer de front la ligne jadis suivie par la droite, en conformité avec les attentes de l’UE : «La politique d’austérité suivie ces dernières années a eu pour conséquence une augmentation sans précédent du chômage avec des effets sociaux dévastateurs sur les jeunes et les citoyens les moins qualifiés, ainsi que les familles et les milliers de Portugais au chômage : elle a été aussi associée à une dévalorisation de la dignité du travail et des droits des travailleurs.»

 

LA POLITIQUE D’AUSTÉRITÉ A EU POUR CONSÉQUENCE UNE AUGMENTATION SANS PRÉCÉDENT DU CHÔMAGE AVEC DES EFFETS SOCIAUX DÉVASTATEURS

Cette politique non-orthodoxe irrite a fortiori les instances bruxelloises. La Commission juge d’ailleurs que le budget 2018 du Portugal ne satisfait pas aux exigences européennes de réduction des dépenses publiques, fixées à 0,6%, puisqu’il ne permettrait qu’une diminution de… 0,4%. L’UE semble mal digérer que le Portugal fasse mentir le mantra bruxellois selon lequel seule une réduction des dépenses publiques permet de diminuer le déficit budgétaire.


En démontrant qu’une politique de la demande est capable d’enclencher un cercle vertueux conduisant à l’accroissement des recettes de l’Etat, Lisbonne remet en cause les fondements mêmes d’un dogme économique que l’UE s’acharne à croire gravé dans le marbre, à moins qu’il ne s’agisse de son ADN même ?
Paradoxe très européen : les deux défenseurs les plus zélés de la doctrine économique de Bruxelles, Berlin et Paris, sont loin d’être les mieux placés pour indiquer la voie. Avec une croissance qui ralentit, une consommation en baisse et des investissements moindres au premier trimestre 2018, la France et l’Allemagne pourraient se montrer moins sûres d’elles. Et pourtant, le modèle allemand jouit toujours d’une publicité exceptionnelle partout en Europe et Emmanuel Macron envisage plus que jamais de prendre le leadership d’une UE 2.0.



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