Pourquoi l’an 536 après JC était la pire année de l’Histoire humaine ?

Quand la fin d’une année arrive, nous avons tendance à en dresser un bilan. Et comme certains biais cognitifs font que les mauvais souvenirs remontent le plus facilement, nous avons l’impression que l’année à peine écoulée a été la pire année de tous les temps. Mais les chercheurs nous proposent une vision différente.



Rappelons ainsi qu’en 1349, la peste noire a ravagé l’Europe, tuant quelque 25 millions de personnes [1]. En 1918, c’est la grippe qui a emporté entre 50 et 100 millions de personnes. Toutefois, si vous demandez à Michael McCormick, historien à l’université de Harvard (États-Unis) qu’elle a été la pire année de tous les temps pour l’humanité, il vous répondra sans hésitation :  l’année qui est au-dessus des autres en termes de souffrance est l’an 536 après JC.



L’Europe, le Moyen-Orient et certaines parties de l’Asie ont été plongés dans une obscurité totale par un brouillard mystérieux.

Elle a provoqué des chutes de neige en Chine, des mauvaises récoltes à l’échelle continentale, une sécheresse extrême, la famine et des maladies dans la majeure partie de l’hémisphère Nord.

L’année noire a été déclenchée par une éruption cataclysmique islandaise, affirment les scientifiques, et était de mauvais augure pour un triste siècle de souffrances et de mort.

Michael McCormick, archéologue et historien médiéval de l’Université Harvard, a déclaré à Science Magazine que le monde n’a montré aucun signe de rétablissement avant l’an 640 après JC.

C’était le début d’une des pires périodes pour être en vie, si ce n’est la pire année”, a dit le Dr McCormick.

Le brouillard sinistre a créé un monde terne avec une obscurité omniprésente dans l’hémisphère nord pendant 18 mois, avec un crépuscule implacable qui se prolongeait jour et nuit.

Les effets sur le climat ont été tels que les chroniques irlandaises parlent d’un “manque de pain dans les années 536-539”.

Les températures de l’été 536 ont chuté entre 1,5 °C (2,7 °F) et 2,5 °C (4,5 °F), amorçant ainsi la décennie la plus froide des 2.300 dernières années.

La dévastation internationale déclenchée par le brouillard non identifié a donné lieu à l’appellation “L’âge des ténèbres” qui a été utilisée pour désigner cette période inquiétante. Puis, c’est en 541, que la peste de Justinien est apparue, et tout a encore empiré. À savoir que la peste de Justinien est la toute première pandémie de peste au monde (les pestes précédentes restent incertaines quant à leur nature exacte).

Le Dr McCormick et le glaciologue Paul Mayewski du Climate Change Institute de l’Université du Maine (UM) à Orono croient avoir finalement résolu l’énigme.

Dans leur étude, publiée dans la revue Antiquity, les chercheurs révèlent qu’elle a probablement été causée par une éruption volcanique cataclysmique en Islande.

L’analyse des carottes de glace – capsules naturelles du passé géologique de la Terre – a également mis au jour que deux éruptions ont suivi en 540 et 547 après JC.

À la profondeur correspondant au début de l’année 536, les chercheurs ont découvert des particules de verre volcanique semblables à d’autres, trouvées ailleurs en Europe ou au Groenland. Une analyse aux rayons X a permis de situer leur origine en Islande. Le responsable de ce fameux brouillard qui a tant coûté à l’humanité serait donc un volcan islandais entré en éruption début 536.

Et la situation de l’humanité aurait ensuite empiré suite à deux nouvelles éruptions massives en 540 et en 547. Alors qu’une épidémie de peste bubonique frappait la Méditerranée entre 541 et 543, tuant quelque 100 millions de personnes [2], soit la moitié de la population mondiale. Une conjonction d’événement malheureux qui est probablement à l’origine de l’effondrement de l’Empire romain oriental.

On pense que l’activité volcanique incessante a produit des millions de tonnes de cendres qui se sont répandues sur de vastes régions du monde.

Les auteurs de l’étude écrivent que cela a introduit une période de ruine économique qui restera inébranlablement en place jusqu’à un siècle plus tard.

L’analyse des carottes de glace a révélé que les dépôts de soufre, de bismuth et de téphra précèdent chaque été exceptionnellement froid.

Référence historique

L’historien byzantin Procope de Césarée, lorsqu’il écrit sur les guerres avec les Vandales, dit à propos de l’an 536 : « Pendant cette année, un signe de mauvais augure a eu lieu. Le Soleil a donné sa lumière sans éclat […] et il a paru avoir comme une éclipse, parce que ses rayons ne brillaient pas. »

Les annales irlandaises gaéliques enregistrent ce qui suit :



D’autres sources contemporaines indépendantes rapportent :

  • Des températures basses, et même de la neige en été (il aurait neigé en Chine au mois d’août)
  • L’empereur du Japon Senka-Tennō (536-539) publie un édit insistant sur l’importance de la nourriture par rapport à l’or, précisant que 1 000 perles ne peuvent soulager celui qui souffre du froid.
  • L’absence de récoltes
  • « Un brouillard dense et sec » au Moyen-Orient, en Chine et en Europe
  • Une sécheresse au Pérou, affectant les gens de culture Moche

En l’an 536 : éruption volcanique, provoquant des baisses de température, et plongeant certaines parties du monde dans l’obscurité durant 18 mois. 536 à 545 : la décade la plus froide de ces dernières 2000 années. 540 à 541 : la peste de Justinien frappe, faisant de très nombreux morts. 640 : l’économie se redresse gentiment. 660 : second pic observé, les humains frappent les premières pièces d’argent. Crédits : A. CUADRA/SCIENCE/C. P. LOVELUCK ET AL./ANTIQUITY 2018/M. SIGL ET AL./NATURE 2015/M. MCCORMICK



Les chercheurs ont remarqué une différence dans la glace vers l’an 640, soit environ un siècle plus tard : du plomb. C’est à cette époque-là que les humains ont commencé à extraire et à fondre de l’argent à partir de minerai de plomb. « Ce plomb indique donc que le métal précieux était en demande dans une économie qui rebondissait après un siècle de misère », explique l’archéologue Christopher Loveluck, de l’Université de Nottingham, au Royaume-Uni.

Un second sommet, en 660, marque une importante infusion d’argent dans l’économie émergente médiévale. Cela suggère que l’or était devenu rare à mesure que le commerce augmentait, forçant le passage à l’argent comme étalon monétaire, écrivent Loveluck et ses collègues. « Cela montre la montée de la classe marchande pour la première fois », expliquent Loveluck et ses collègues.

L’analyse des troncs d’arbres par le dendrochronologiste Mike Baillie, de l’Université Queen’s de Belfast, montre une croissance anormalement faible des chênes irlandais en 536 et une autre diminution sensible en l’an 542, après un rétablissement partiel. Des événements semblables sont enregistrés dans les stries des troncs d’arbres de Suède et deFinlande, dans la Sierra Nevada (Californie) et dans les stries des arbres Fitzroya du Chili.Indices scientifiques

Par ailleurs, les noyaux de glace du Groenland et de l’Antarctique montrent des dépôts de sulfate en 533-534 ± 2 ans, preuve d’un voile étendu de poussière acide.

Conséquences historiques

On a vu les événements de 536 et la famine qui s’ensuivit comme explication pour le sacrifice par les élites scandinaves de grandes quantités d’or, probablement pour apaiser les dieux et pour obtenir le retour de la lumière du Soleil.

Le déclin de l’importante ville mésoaméricaine de Teotihuacán, accompagné de signes d’instabilité politique et de famines, est également lié aux sécheresses provoquées par le changement climatique.

Pendant les trois siècles suivant les travaux de Boèce, juste antérieurs à ce changement, on ne constate plus d’activité notable de traduction des auteurs grecs vers le latin en Europe.

Un ouvrage de David Keys mentionne parallèlement l’épidémie de peste sous Justinien, le déclin des Avars, la migration à l’Ouest de tribus mongoles, l’effondrement de l’Empire Gupta, et l’affaiblissement des civilisations sédentaires sassanide etbyzantine qui va ouvrir une opportunité d’expansion aux nomades arabes fédérés par l’islam.

[1] En 1300 la population mondiale était estimée entre 360 à 432 millions. En 1400, elle était estimée entre 350 à 374 millions

[2] Entre les années 500 et 600, la population mondiale a été estimée à 190 à 206 millions de personnes.

source: Hannibal GENSERIC

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