D’ici 2050, l’élévation du niveau de la mer pourrait être pire que prévu

Si les êtres humains ne diminuent pas leurs émissions de gaz à effet de serre, l’élévation du niveau de la mer pourrait dépasser nos projections. Des scientifiques estiment qu’il faudrait revoir à la hausse plus de deux fois les prévisions actuelles.

Si les êtres humains ne diminuent pas leurs émissions de gaz à effet de serre, l’élévation du niveau de la mer pourrait dépasser nos projections. Des scientifiques estiment qu’il faudrait revoir à la hausse plus de deux fois les prévisions actuelles.

« Il sera bientôt trop tard  », alertaient encore récemment 15 000 scientifiques. Parmi les dangers environnementaux qui guettent l’humanité, l’élévation du niveau de la mer vient de faire l’objet d’une étude aux conclusions plutôt alarmantes.

Publié le 13 décembre 2017 dans la revue scientifique en libre accès Earth’s Futurecet article annonce que l’élévation pourrait être plus de deux fois supérieure aux niveaux anticipés, d’ici 2050. Pour éviter ce pronostic, les scientifiques sont formels : les êtres humains doivent réduire leurs émissions de gaz à effets de serre lors des années à venir.

Pour dresser ce constat, les auteurs de l’étude ont étudié en particulier l’Inlandsis de l’Antarctique, c’est à dire la calotte polaire qui recouvre la majeure partie du continent austral. Ce sont précisément les phénomènes de « fracturation hydraulique » et de « l’effondrement des falaises de glace » qui permettent aux chercheurs d’alerter sur le risque d’élévation du niveau des eaux.

JUSQU’À 150 CENTIMÈTRES EN PLUS

« Ces mécanismes pourraient rendre le niveau des mers, à partir de 2050, fortement tributaire des émissions, et inviteraient à revoir les projections à la hausse en cas de fortes émissions  », écrivent les spécialistes.

Les chercheurs donnent ensuite une projection médiane de l’élévation du niveau des mers, dans l’hypothèse où les émissions à effet de serre resteraient importantes : dans ce cas, le niveau moyen global des océans estimé pour le vingt-et-unième siècle passerait de 79 à 146 centimètres.

Cette estimation revue à la hausse ne sera pas sans conséquence pour l’humanité : les scientifiques considèrent que les eaux pourraient submerger des terres où habitent aujourd’hui 153 millions de personnes, d’ici 2100.

 

Source: Numerama

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