Il suffit que 3,5% d’une population soit mobilisée pour qu’une lutte non violente renverse un gouvernement

« Ne doutez jamais qu’un petit groupe d’individus conscients et engagés puisse changer le monde. C’est d’ailleurs toujours comme cela que ça s’est passé. » Margaret Mead

L’une est chercheuse en violence politique et résistance citoyenne, l’autre est une experte des mouvements de désobéissance civile. Erica Chenoweth et Maria J. Stephan ont étudié les mouvements civils de lutte non-violente et en sont arrivées à cette conclusion surprenante : il suffit de mobiliser 3,5% d’une population pour qu’une résistance non violente ait gain de cause.

« Pourquoi la désobéissance civile fonctionne »




Alors qu’elle se destinait d’abord à une carrière militaire, la chercheuse Erica Chenoweth (Université de Denver et Harvard Kennedy School) n’aurait pas imaginé co-écrire le livre « Why Civil Resistance Works » (Pourquoi la désobéissance civile fonctionne) durant son parcours professionnel. Suite au défi lancé par Maria J. Stephan, experte en désobéissance civile et directrice du programme d’action non-violente à l’Institut de Paix des Etats-Unis, les deux femmes ont compilé et étudié les campagnes de résistance civile non violente entre 1900 et 2006.


Résultat : ces mouvements ont été deux fois plus efficaces que les protestations violentes durant la même période. Leur livre, publié en 2011, présente les conclusions de leurs recherches : pourquoi la stratégie de lutte non-violente fonctionne mieux, mais aussi pourquoi elle échoue parfois.

L’information la plus marquante de leur travail reste la « règle des 3,5% » :

« Les chercheurs avaient l’habitude de dire qu’aucun gouvernement ne pourrait survivre si 5 % de sa population se mobilisait contre elle. Mais nos données révèlent que le seuil est probablement inférieur. En fait, aucune campagne n’a échoué une fois la participation active et soutenue de seulement 3,5 % de la population – et beaucoup d’entre eux ont réussi avec beaucoup moins que cela. Bien sûr, 3,5% de la population demande une mobilisation qui reste importante. Aux États-Unis, cela signifie presque 11 millions de personnes. » Erica Chenoweth




Chaque mouvement citoyen rassemblant plus de 3,5% de la population était construit autour d’une stratégie de lutte non violente. La chercheuse a déterminé que les individus participant à des campagnes non violentes étaient en moyenne quatre fois plus nombreux que ceux participant à une lutte violente. Ces participants étaient souvent beaucoup plus représentatifs en termes de sexe, d’âge, de race, de parti politique, de classe et de distinctions urbain-rural.

Autrement dit, la stratégie de lutte non-violente permet de dépasser les clivages et de rassembler plus de monde grâce à la pluralité de ses actions : manifestations, boycotts, désobéissance civile, etc. Surtout, les luttes non-violentes ouvriraient la voie à des démocraties durables et pacifiques, comprenant moins de risques de sombrer dans une guerre civile que leurs homologues violentes.


Un propos d’actualité

Bien que leur ouvrage ait été publié en 2011, le propos reste d’actualité alors que le débat prend de l’ampleur au sein des militants environnementaux sur la meilleure stratégie (violente ou non-violente) à adopter pour faire comprendre aux gouvernements l’urgence du réchauffement climatique.

« La non-violence est un jeu entre la force de la contrainte et la force de la persuasion. Il faut perturber les choses pour faire passer un message que les gens ne sont pas disposés à écouter. Mais perturber les choses tout en respectant les personnes pour qu’elles puissent quand même rester à l’écoute ou revenir à l’écoute, qu’il y ait des conditions de dialogue qui puissent être établies ou maintenues. » Jon Palais, Cofondateur d’Alternatiba et d’ANV-COP 21, pour Thinkerview


Car non-violence ne veut pas dire inaction : boycotterfaucher les chaises d’une banque, bloquer un sommet pétrolier, actions locales en fonction des besoins d’un territoire, actions décentralisées… c’est bien d’un passage à l’action dont il s’agit. Récemment, en Arménie, un soulèvement citoyen pacifiste contre la corruption a réussi à détrôner un leader politique qui se maintenait au pouvoir depuis 10 ans, là où une manifestation plus violente avait été sévèrement réprimée par la police en 2008, faisant une dizaine de morts. Le journaliste Vincent Cheynet précise :

« La décroissance commence par le refus de la montée aux extrêmes, elle est une désescalade. Loin d’être un pacifisme angélique, narcissique voire lâche qui refuserait la confrontation, elle commence par le choix courageux de la non-violence. »

En France, suite à la démission de Nicolas Hulot, de nombreux événements s’organisent pour agir en faveur du climat. Serons-nous 3,5% à faire entendre notre voix ?




Image à la une : Benjamin Filarski / Hans Lucas – AFP

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