Les 10 mystères dévoilés sur la monnaie qui va remplacer le Franc Cfa

Si le projet existe depuis 1975, il a été relancé ces dernières semaines entre deux sommets de chefs d’Etats à Abuja et à Abidjan.

Mais plusieurs aspects restent flous autour de la nouvelle monnaie. Afrika Stratégies France apporte des réponses à dix choses que vous vous demandez sur la nouvelle monnaie qui devrait prendre corps en 2020. Et vous verrez que rien n’est plus insaisissable que l’Eco.

1- A quelle date la nouvelle monnaie sera-t-elle en circulation?

Impossible de le dire à ce jour, personne ne connaît de date pour la mise en circulation de la nouvelle monnaie. Si un sommet de la Cedeao fin juin ou début juillet 2020 sera consacré au sujet après plusieurs réunions d’experts et consultants de la communauté régionale, il est probable que la période d’effectivité soit le 3e trimestre 2020 au plus tôt. C’est aussi le temps pour les Etats concernés atteindre ou d’évaluer leurs critères de convergences basés sur la croissance, le contrôle de l’inflation ou encore la maitrise du déficit public.

2- S’agit-il d’une de substitution au Cfa ou un changement de nom ?

Sur cette question préliminaire, les chefs d’Etats ne se sont pas mis d’accord. Pour les anglophones (Sierra Léone, Libéria, Nigeria, Ghana, Gambie) c’est évident que ce soit carrément une nouvelle monnaie qui n’aura rien à voir avec le Cfa. Le Cap-Vert, très retissent à abandonner l’Escudo cap-verdien, relativement stable n’entend pas se précipiter. Et la Guinée Conakry qui utilise le franc guinéen depuis son indépendance attend des consultations avec Paris. Mais pour Alassane Ouattara, président en exercice de l’Union économique monétaire ouest africaine (Uemoa) et qui tient à rester en poste jusqu’en 2020, c’est juste un changement de nom.

3- Est- ce que les signes faciaux de l’Eco sont connus ?

Non. La Banque centrale des Etats de l’Afrique de l’ouest (Bceao) a lancé un concours dans ce sens sans jamais en dévoiler les résultats. A ce jour, ni logo, ni spécimen, rien n’existe de ce à quoi ressemblera la future monnaie. Ce qui sème le doute sur l’effectivité de sa mise en circulation l’année prochaine.

4- Quel rôle entend jouer la France ?

« Elle veut être utile » estime Emmanuel Macron. En recevant, le 11 juillet le président du Ghana à l’Elysée, il a promis « discuter sans tabou, ni totem » du Cfa sans plus de détails. Il faut dire que Paris a été pris de court par l’imminence de l’Eco pour 2020. Ce qui justifie que le sujet soit largement à l’ordre du jour de la rencontre avec Alassane Ouattara à l’Elysée le 9 juillet. Le franc CFA « a une utilité« , selon Macron. Le président français veut garder » la part de stabilité que ça apporte« . Une manière de dire que Paris aura son rôle à jouer. D’ailleurs, de retour à Abidjan, Ouattara fait du Cfa, avec des nuances qui lui sont propres, l’objet d’un sommet de l’Union économique et monétaire ouest africaine (Uemoa), « comme s’il avait apporté un message de Paris« .

5- La nouvelle monnaie sera-t-elle imprimée en Afrique ?

Deux pays membres de la Cedeao impriment eux-mêmes leurs monnaies, dans des conditions de sécurités confortables. Si le Franc (Guinée Conakry), la Leone (Sierra-Léone), le Dalasi (Gambie), l’Escudo (Cap-vert) sont imprimés en Grande-Bretagne par De La Rue, le Nigéria et le Ghana impriment eux-mêmes leurs monnaies respectives, le Naïra et le Cedi. Mais pour ne pas mettre au chômage l’imprimerie de Chamalières qui imprime actuellement le Cfa, Paris pourrait mettre la pression pour garder quelques années le monopole. « Inadmissible ! » a déjà prévenu Muhammadu Buhari alors que John Akuffo-Addo préfère « ne pas se prononcer sur des détails » pour l’instant.

6- Quelles sont les positions des chefs d’Etat ?

Muhammadu Buhari (Nigeria) accepte l’idée de la nouvelle monnaie mais exige des normes de convergences pour que son pays dont le Pib par habitant (2400 dollars) est quatre fois plus élevé que celui du Togo qui ne dépasse guère les 650 dollars, adhère à l’Eco. Le président nigérian exige donc des économies compétitives comme critère de base. Sall (Sénégal), Ibrahim Boubacar Kéïta (Mali) et Ouattara (Côte d’Ivoire) veulent prendre le temps et souhaitent d’une monnaie proche du Cfa. Les petits pays anglophones (Libéria, Sierra Leone, Gambie) portés par le Ghana sont pressés d’aller au plus vite à la nouvelle monnaie tandis que le Cap-Vert est très prudent. Parmi les francophones, Talon (Bénin) et Isoufou (Niger) veulent aller aussi vite que le Ghana, Gnassingbé (Togo) est prudent et tend, comme Koaboré (Burkia Faso), une oreille vers Paris « consignes«.

7- Est-ce que le Maroc, futur membre de la Cedeao passera du Dirham à l’Eco ?

Non. La remise en cause du Dirham n’est pas à l’ordre du jour du royaume chérifien. L’économie marocaine étant très stable, le royaume ne prendra pas le risque d’entrer dans une nouvelle monnaie dont les perspectives sont, pour le moins, risquées. D’ailleurs le Maroc ne se presse plus pour adhérer à la Cedeao.

8- Quelle banque va gérer la nouvelle monnaie ?

Une banque centrale sera créée à cet effet. Il s’agira ici d’une banque centrale fédérale dont le Nigeria s’estime déjà le mieux placé pour en accueillir le siège. Mais en attendant, la Bceao va continuer le service après vente pour le Cfa et travaillera à la mise en place de la nouvelle monnaie. Délicate mission pour une institution qui s’est toujours montrée hostile à l’idée d’une nouvelle monnaie.

9- Quels seront les premiers pays membres ?

Abuja tient aux critères de convergence. Si tel est le cas, le Nigeria, le Ghana, le Sénégal, la Côte d’Ivoire répondent déjà aux critères de convergence. Le Mali et le Cap Vert n’en sont pas loin. Le Bénin et le Burkina Faso y arriveraient rapidement. Trop endetté, le Togo devrait, tout comme le Libéria et la Gambie trainer les pas. Le Niger aussi. Mais il y a une idée selon laquelle tous les pays qui ont chacune une monnaie (Nigeria, Ghana, Cap-Vert, Gambie, Sierra-Léone, guinée Conakry et Libéria) ne commencent pour être rejoints par les autres de l’Uemoa.

10- Quel sera le taux de convertibilité ?

Ouattara veut qu’il soit arrimé sur l’Euro. Si on suit le président ivoirien, l’Eco n’est que le nouveau nom du Cfa. La plupart de ses pairs souhaitent un taux flexible. Le Nigeria veut même que la nouvelle monnaie n’ait aucun lien avec l’Euro. L’idée d’une convertibilité par rapport au Yuan chinois existe. Ou encore au Livre Sterling.

Source: 237online

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