Qui volerait l’avenir de ses enfants?

Avant qu’on passe à l’article j’aimerais partager avec vous une œuvre d’art vraiment intelligente et puissante que j’ai découverte dans une vidéo sur Facebook. À première vue, rien ne semble inhabituel, une mère qui se promène avec son enfant. Le génie, c’est que l’enfant est fait de glace. Au fil des heures, il a commencé à fondre et a finalement disparu, tandis que la statue de la mère est restée intacte. C’était une représentation vraiment brillante des dilemmes éthiques qui entourent les sujets du changement climatique et de la dégradation de l’environnement en général. Nous volons l’avenir de nos enfants, de la même manière que nos parents ont volé une part de notre propre avenir.

La dette

Cette situation est plutôt inhabituelle pour l’histoire de notre espèce. Généralement, nos ancêtres accumulaient connaissances et richesses et offraient à leurs enfants de meilleures opportunités que celles qu’elles avaient. Depuis la révolution industrielle, cette tendance a commencé à changer rapidement. Nous avons commencé à profiter de plus de confort et de richesses, d’un meilleur accès à la nourriture, à la technologie, aux voyages, aux soins de santé, etc. Mais nous avons décidé d’ignorer des coûts cachés associés à ce progrès au cours du siècle dernier. Les nouvelles technologies qui ont créé une croissance économique sans précédent nous ont également permis de détruire la nature à des vitesses sans précédent. En même temps, les progrès de l’agriculture et de la médecine ont provoqué un boom exponentiel de la population humaine. Nous avons commencé à vivre à crédit, un crédit que nous ne pourrons jamais rembourser. Nous n’avons pas de dettes envers les banques, mais envers nos enfants.

Ça se passe déjà

Nous subissons déjà les effets négatifs du changement climatique. De nombreuses régions du monde sont confrontées à des phénomènes climatiques extrêmes tels que des sécheresses prolongées et de fortes vagues de chaleur. Ces perturbations du climat ont un impact sur la production agricole et menacent la stabilité économique et politique de nombreuses régions. Par exemple, la guerre en Syrie a été provoquée, du moins en partie, par une sécheresse extrême qui a plongé le pays dans une crise économique profonde. Et les effets de cette instabilité se font déjà sentir même en Europe et aux États-Unis. La crise migratoire que nous avons connue à présent n’est qu’une vision pâle de l’ampleur de la migration à laquelle nous allons devoir faire face au cours des prochaines décennies. Un très grand pourcentage de la population humaine vit autour des zones côtières et l’élévation du niveau de la mer provoquera des migrations inédites. Une grande partie de la production agricole sera également menacée par l’élévation du niveau de la mer et la perturbation du climat. Ces instabilités économiques et sociales sont très susceptibles de provoquer des conflits violents pour des ressources à travers le monde. Mais la situation est malheureusement encore pire que ce que la plupart des gens imaginent.

C’est encore pire…

Lorsque nous pensons aux émissions de gaz à effet de serre, généralement nous imaginons qu’un certain niveau d’émissions correspond à un certain niveau d’augmentation de la température dans le monde. Et nous pensons que si nous réduisions les émissions d’un certain niveau, nous allons réduire le réchauffement que nous ressentons proportionnellement. L’équation n’est pas du tout si simple que ça, elle est bien plus complexe et effrayante. Même si nous arrêtons d’émettre des gaz à effet de serre aujourd’hui, nous allons assister à un réchauffement croissant au cours des prochaines décennies en raison des gaz que nous avons déjà libérés. Les données géologiques montrent que même de modestes changements sont susceptibles de déclencher une chaîne d’événements qui accélèrent et exacerbent les changements climatiques. Nos propres émissions pourraient devenir une source mineure des gaz à effet de serre qui sont relâchés dans l’atmosphère. De nombreux scientifiques nous avertissent que nous déclenchons déjà des boucles de rétroaction qui pourraient provoquer un changement climatique radical. Si nous provoquons trop de réchauffement, nous allons déclencher des mécanismes de changement qui sont totalement hors de notre contrôle et que nos enfants ne pourraient jamais savoir gérer, même s’ils arrêtaient toutes les émissions et la déforestation. Le pergélisol contient des quantités extrêmes de méthane et de carbone. Si ces gaz à effet de serre sont libérés, la fonte du pergélisol lui-même deviendra une majeur source de réchauffement, ce qui provoquera encore plus de fonte. Le processus sera incontrôlable et aura des effets rapides et dévastateurs sur le climat. Nos estimations de la vitesse de ce processus auraient peut-être été trop optimistes, comme le révèle ce récent article de la NASA. Et ce n’est que l’une des nombreuses boucles de rétroaction que nous déclenchons actuellement…

Nous aimons tous nos enfants, n’est-ce pas ?

Nous aimons tous nos enfants et nos parents nous ont aussi aimés, il n’y a pas de doutes là dessus. Mais lorsqu’il s’agit de problèmes complexes tels que le changement climatique, nous n’arrivons pas à agir d’une manière raisonnable Beaucoup de gens diront qu’ils sacrifieraient n’importe quoi pour leurs enfants, même leurs vies. Pourtant, lorsqu’il s’agit de réduire notre empreinte écologique, nous ne pouvons pas agir avec l’urgence qui nous est demandée. Et je ne veux pas seulement dire que nous pourrions réduire nos émissions en consommant moins, en conduisant moins, en volant moins, etc. C’est nécessaire et important, mais nous devons également travailler pour des solutions politiques. En dépit de tous nos désaccords, je pense que la plupart des gens ne veulent pas laisser leurs enfants sur une planète ravagée par la famine et la guerre. Malheureusement, de nombreuses personnes discutent encore de l’existence du changement climatique. Je pense que nous pouvons tout à fait être en désaccord sur les solutions possibles, mais nous devons nous mettre d’accord sur les faits objectifs. Le changement climatique est réel et menace l’existence de nos espèces et l’équilibre écologique de l’ensemble de l’écosystème. Comment allons-nous agir?

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