Voici le nombre idéal d’humains sur Terre

Notre planète nous paraît usée après les quatre cents dernières années d’extraction de ressources à grande échelle. Mais à sa décharge, elle ne s’est pas complètement effondrée. Malgré tous nos efforts, elle continue à accueillir notre population en pleine expansion. Mais dans l’absolu, quel serait le nombre idéal d’humains sur Terre ?

Nous ne préconisons pas de réduire la population. Nous sommes simplement curieux. Dans le Giz Asks de cette semaine, Gizmodo a notamment posé la question à Bent Flyvbjerg, Professeur à la Säid Business School de l’Université d’Oxford. Alors, avons-nous dépassé ce chiffre, ou pouvons-nous encore attendre d’être quelques milliards d’humains de plus avant que tout ne s’effondre ?


« D’un point de vue anthropocentrique », dit-il, « pour calculer la taille de la population idéale de la Terre, il faudrait d’abord établir un repère idéal de ce que nous pensons être une “bonne vie”, et calculer les ressources nécessaires pour maintenir ce style de vie ».

En première approximation, le chercheur prend en référence le style de vie français. « Selon le calculateur du Global Footprint Network, si toute l’humanité devait vivre comme les Français, nous aurions besoin d’environ 2,5 Terres pour maintenir ce style de vie. Tout style de vie qui ne peut pas être universalisé au reste de l’humanité ne peut pas être juste. Chaque nouveau-né devrait pouvoir profiter de sa juste part des ressources mondiales », explique-t-il. Et il n’a pas tort.


« Ainsi, pour assurer la taille idéale de la population afin que chacun puisse profiter d’un mode de vie comparable, en prenant le style de vie français comme référence, il faudrait réduire la population mondiale à environ 3 milliards de personnes (soit 4,6 milliards de moins que la population actuelle) ». Bigre. « Si, au contraire, nous choisissons le mode de vie des Américains comme référence, alors la population mondiale devra être réduite à 1,9 milliard ».


Que doit-on faire alors si nous voulons garder tout le monde ? « Outre la réduction de la population mondiale, il existe un deuxième moyen de créer une situation dans laquelle tous les êtres humains pourraient jouir d’une part égale des ressources mondiales », explique le chercheur. « Si nous voulions garder les habitants de la planète au niveau actuel de 7,6 milliards, nous devrions réduire nos empreintes écologiques et vivre comme les gens en Inde, soit en adoptant un style de vie similaire, soit en développant des méthodes plus écologiques pour soutenir nos modes de vie ».

La question du nombre de personnes que la Terre peut supporter continuera de fasciner. Mais la problématique la plus importante, pour paraphraser le démographe américain Joel Cohen, est de se demander : « comment les humains veulent-ils vivre sur la planète Terre ? » Le véritable enjeu pour l’Anthropocène est de savoir comment faire évoluer l’humanité vers la création et le maintien de sociétés prospères qui nourrissent à la fois des personnes saines et heureuses, et une nature saine et non humaine, laissant aux créatures sauvages la possibilité de vivre et de prospérer.

 

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